[Column] Will Vietnam be the next Thailand – Footsteps of low birth rates and talent shortages

✅Roughly speaking

• 📉 Vietnam's total fertility rate is 2024 hits record low of 1.91 This is what happened.
• 🏙️ In Vietnam, The birth rate in urban areas is 1.67, and in rural areas it is 2.08 The situation varies depending on the region.
• 🇹🇭 Thailand is being preceded by a declining birth rate and an aging population, but Vietnam is not necessarily following the same path.
• 🏢 For Japanese companies, it is important to assess not only the total population but also the recruitment potential, talent retention, and productivity of each destination.

Introduction

This time, we will explain Vietnam's declining birth rate and its implications for future talent acquisition and Japanese companies' ASEAN operations.

When people think of Vietnam, they often think of a growing market with a large population and a thriving young workforce.
In fact, 2024 Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics of Vietnam According to the, the population is approximately 101.3 million.
Also, 2024 Population and Housing Interim Survey The population aged 15 to 64 accounts for 67.4% of the total.
Therefore, it is not accurate to immediately consider Vietnam to be a "country without workers."

On the other hand, the birth rate, which will affect future population structure, is already below the population replacement level.
Considering this change, Thailand, where the declining birthrate and aging population are leading the way, and Malaysia, where I run a corporation, are also useful.

How far has Vietnam's birth rate fallen

Differences between the national average and urban areas

The total fertility rate is in English Total Fertility Rate , abbreviated as TFR.
This is a time-series indicator that represents the number of children a woman will have in her lifetime, assuming that age-specific birth rates continue to rise over a given year.
This is not a figure that determines the actual number of children a generation of women will have in their lifetime.

Published values by the National Bureau of Statistics of Vietnam So, the TFR fell from 1.96 in 2023 to 1.91 in 2024, with the 2024 value being the lowest on record.
2025 values released by the Vietnamese government is 1.93, a slight increase from the previous year.
Still, it falls below about 2.1, which is considered a long-term guideline for maintaining the population.

Looking at the national average alone, we overlook regional differences.
National Bureau of Statistics Analysis for 2024 In that case, the TFR for urban areas was 1.67 and for rural areas it was 2.08.
According to the same document, of the 63 provinces and cities at the time, 32 fell below the population replacement level.
This "32" is a number based on administrative divisions as of 2024, and is not a denominator of the 34 provinces and cities after the administrative reorganization.

Rather than viewing Vietnam as a single average, it is necessary to examine its demographic structure by city and region where businesses operate.

We can consider the declining birth rate and the current shortage of personnel separately

Even if the birth rate declines, the number of workers will not immediately decrease from the following year.
It takes time for a child to enter the labor market, and the supply of human resources during that time is influenced by factors such as population movement between regions, employment rates, education, and vocational training.
National Bureau of Statistics of Vietnam 2024～2074 population estimates It is also created with assumptions about not only births but also deaths and population movements.

Therefore, it is not possible to definitively state that "Vietnam will soon experience a nationwide labor shortage" based solely on the current TFR.
However, for companies expanding into industrial areas, I think it's more important than the total population of the country to hire people with the necessary skills in that area and ensure they can continue working.

Can this be explained simply by saying, "When you become wealthy, you have fewer children"

Rising incomes, declining infant mortality rates, increased educational opportunities for women, urbanization, and access to contraception are important factors when considering changes in birth rates.
However, the income levels of a country alone cannot be used to interpret the conditions that individuals face regarding marriage and childbirth.

For example, when raising children in an urban area, the issues are not only the costs of housing, childcare, and education, but also whether they can continue working and who they can share childcare with.
United Nations Population Fund 2025 Report They also cite economic constraints, job insecurity, housing, childcare, and partner relationships as barriers to achieving their desired family structure.
However, these international findings cannot be directly treated as the cause of Vietnam's declining birth rate.

When raising the issue of Vietnam's "birth rate fell before it became wealthy," I believe it is important not to attribute this solely to a change in values or the cost of living as the sole cause.

Vietnam's population policy has also begun to change

In Vietnam, the focus of population policy is also changing.
Vietnamese government's explanation in June 2025 According to the, amendments to population laws have made it clear that couples and individuals can decide the number of children, the timing and intervals between births.

Furthermore, Prime Ministerial Decision No. 291/QĐ-TTg for February 2026 has approved a program to ensure and maintain population replacement levels by 2030.
Decision text It lists a goal to increase the national TFR by an average of 2% each year.
Furthermore, the guidelines indicate that when considering support for childbirth and child-rearing, policies such as employment, housing, social welfare, education, and healthcare should be considered in conjunction with these policies.
There are also references to childcare environments in industrial parks and urban areas, and returning to work after childbirth.

However, this is separate from the fact that the program outlines the direction of the measures and that individual support systems have already been implemented nationwide.
When companies use the system or incorporate it into their personnel systems, it is necessary to re-examine the specific implementation details in the target region.

Will Thailand become a precedent for Vietnam

Birth and aging trends

In Thailand, also part of ASEAN, demographic changes are progressing even further.
Series published in the 2024 Statistical Yearbook of the National Bureau of Statistics of Thailand So, the TFR is 1.54 in 2019, 1.21 in 2022, and 1.00 in 2023.
The original sources of this series are Mahidol Population Gazette Yes.
The TFR will vary depending on the estimation method and the materials used, so 1.00 here should not be treated as a Thai "final value" common to all statistics.

Same Population composition data from the statistical yearbook So, in 2023, 20.0% of the population will be over 60 years old, and 64.4% will be between the ages of 15 and 59.
Furthermore, 2025 Yearbook of the National Bureau of Statistics of Thailand According to the report, there will be 462,240 registered births and 571,646 registered deaths in 2024, with the number of deaths exceeding the number of births.
The difference between births and deaths alone does not determine the increase or decrease in the total population, including immigrants.
Nevertheless, addressing the declining birthrate and aging population is already a real challenge in Thailand.

Not only the number of people but also the skills become an issue

2026 Meeting Materials of the National Economic and Social Development Council of Thailand It is explained that while the domestic supply of highly skilled personnel is approximately 58,000 per year, the demand from industry exceeds one million.
However, the published conference explanations alone cannot adequately confirm the demand calculation period or the scope of "highly skilled personnel."
This should not be interpreted as meaning that one million vacancies occur every year, but rather as a policy issue concerning the gap between human resource development and industrial demand.

The implication from this point is that measures to combat the declining birthrate alone will not solve companies' human resource problems.
Mechanisms for developing people and connecting them with the necessary work and skills are also important.

Will Vietnam become the next Thailand

To answer the question in the title, I cannot at this time answer, "It will definitely happen."
Vietnam's TFR for 2024 is 1.91 and the aforementioned Thailand in 2023 Estimated value of 1.00 There is a difference.
Because the year and the estimated series are different, it cannot be concluded from these two figures that the two countries are changing at the same rate.

On the other hand, Vietnam National Bureau of Statistics' Mid-Population Estimates It is estimated that the proportion of Vietnam's population aged 65 and over will reach 14% in 2034 and 21.1% in 2050.
The same mid-range estimate suggests that in 2034, the population aged 60 and over will exceed the population aged 0 to 14.
The former is the proportion of the population aged 65 and over, while the latter is a comparison of the population aged 60 and over with the child population.
It's important to note that the age categories differ.

Furthermore, these estimates make certain assumptions about births, deaths, population movements, etc., and are not future definitive values.
Rather than Vietnam following the same path as Thailand, I believe it's more important to consider how far education and vocational training, a comfortable working environment, and increased productivity can be advanced while still leveraging its current demographic structure.

From the perspective of managing a Malaysian corporation

I run a corporation in Malaysia.
Therefore, ASEAN's demographics are of interest not only as statistics but also in continuing business operations.

For example, when considering increasing staffing in a business plan, it's not just the number of employees you need to consider.
You also need to consider whether there are people who can do the necessary work, how long it will take to develop them, and whether they will be able to continue working after being hired.
This is a concern from my perspective, and I am not presenting facts about specific recruitment cases that I have not experienced.

Published by Statistics Malaysia So the country's TFR fell from 1.7 in 2023 to 1.6 in 2024.
Time series data from the station So, with a TFR of 2.0 in 2013, we are already below the population replacement level.

Of course, the current recruitment difficulties and wage levels cannot be explained solely by the birth rate.
Nevertheless, I believe we should be cautious when planning long-term projects that uniformly assume ASEAN is a region with a continuously growing young workforce.

Practical points that Japanese companies want to confirm

We do not judge destinations by country alone

When considering the location of factories and business establishments in Vietnam, it is important to check not only the national population but also the age distribution of the target region, population influx, and the status of schools and vocational training.
For companies that are already in operation, it is considered beneficial to continuously monitor the recruitment process, retention rate, and time to skill acquisition.
It is important not to infer current talent supply based solely on future birth rates.

Consider retention at the same time as hiring

It's not always possible to recruit the necessary personnel from outside.
There is room to examine training, promotion opportunities, work styles, balancing childcare and work, and support for returning to work from the perspective of retaining talent.
However, in designing specific systems, it is necessary to examine the labor laws, social insurance systems, and the actual conditions of businesses in each country.

Don't rely solely on labor input

Given the possibility that the growth of workers may slow in the long term, it is essential to consider ways to increase productivity per person through automation, standardization of operations, and employee education.
I believe this applies not only to manufacturing but also to professional services.

Personally, when it comes to managing a Malaysian corporation, I would like to separate simply increasing the number of people from increasing the value that the organization can provide.

Summary

Vietnam's TFR 2024 hits record low of 1.91 and, 1.93 in 2025 It rose slightly to.
We need to consider not only the national average, but also the differences between urban and rural areas.

Thailand is experiencing a decline in birth rates and an aging population, but Vietnam is not necessarily the "next Thailand."
Furthermore, the decline in the birth rate cannot be directly equated with the current shortage of human resources.

Nevertheless, since birth rates in several ASEAN countries, including Malaysia, are below the population replacement level, I believe Japanese companies need to check the assumption that "the number of young workers will continue to increase."
To identify the recruitment environment in each region, develop and retain talent, and increase productivity per person.
I think the changes in Vietnam's birth rate will give us an opportunity to think about such long-term business plans.